Comments on: Still bleeding Erie County’s continued population loss http://albanysinsanity.wnymedia.net/blogs/2008/03/27/still-bleeding-erie-county%e2%80%99s-continued-population-loss/ Fri, 21 Nov 2008 23:30:50 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.1 By: starbuck http://albanysinsanity.wnymedia.net/blogs/2008/03/27/still-bleeding-erie-county%e2%80%99s-continued-population-loss/#comment-43068 starbuck Thu, 27 Mar 2008 21:21:07 +0000 http://albanysinsanity.wnymedia.net/blogs/2008/03/27/still-bleeding-erie-county%e2%80%99s-continued-population-loss/#comment-43068 Even though a seat will be reduced after the Census, that won't happen until 2012. So it wouldn't be just a single 2-year term with the current boundary, there'd be two. By 2012, Slaughter will probably retire. So whoever is the incumbent in the formerly Reynolds seat would still be one of two incumbents (along with Higgins) who would have represented portions of what were 3 districts which will shrink down to 2 districts starting in 2012. If she still retires this year (she'd ahve to hurry!) or in 2010, then there could be three incumbents battling for two seats in 2012. So I don't buy that as the likely reason for Maziarz and Hayes not running. My guess is Maziarz was pressured to help hold the State Senate for the GOP, and Hayes just didn't find a lot of strong backing for whatever reasons. Maybe some behind the scenes issues there - who knows? But whoever gets Reynolds seat will have a good chance of stayinin office after the reduction, unless a Republican wins the seat and then Democrats gain control of the state senate. In that case they could gerrymander in a way that makes it easier for a Dem to win the seat after 2012. BTW - Funny how the Buffalo News editorial writers pretend Albany will revitalize the WNY economy just as long as they remember to do so. Classic! Even though a seat will be reduced after the Census, that won’t happen until 2012. So it wouldn’t be just a single 2-year term with the current boundary, there’d be two.

By 2012, Slaughter will probably retire. So whoever is the incumbent in the formerly Reynolds seat would still be one of two incumbents (along with Higgins) who would have represented portions of what were 3 districts which will shrink down to 2 districts starting in 2012. If she still retires this year (she’d ahve to hurry!) or in 2010, then there could be three incumbents battling for two seats in 2012.

So I don’t buy that as the likely reason for Maziarz and Hayes not running. My guess is Maziarz was pressured to help hold the State Senate for the GOP, and Hayes just didn’t find a lot of strong backing for whatever reasons. Maybe some behind the scenes issues there - who knows?

But whoever gets Reynolds seat will have a good chance of stayinin office after the reduction, unless a Republican wins the seat and then Democrats gain control of the state senate. In that case they could gerrymander in a way that makes it easier for a Dem to win the seat after 2012.

BTW - Funny how the Buffalo News editorial writers pretend Albany will revitalize the WNY economy just as long as they remember to do so. Classic!

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